Domestic tourism is likely to see an uptick – anywhere you can get to (or more importantly return from) via ground transportation is likely to be considered a safe bet by travelers.  Island and trans-oceanic destinations will start going to the bottom of the list of alternatives – island destinations in particular may have a very tough time as they cannot easily substitute off-island travelers with locals.

However, the dirty little secret (actually, it’s not that little) that most analysts and industry insiders seem to miss or ignore (often because they are focused only on the near term) is that short of some very prolonged, globally catastrophic event (think nuclear war); humankind’s desire and “need” to travel has done nothing but lead to increases in global international arrivals – to the tune of 6.5% per annum over the past six decades.  For Europe that growth was some 6.1% per annum for the same period.  And globally it is forecast to grow at equally strong rates through 2020 – with bumps along the road.

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ARRIVALS

Now, there’s no hiding the fact that 2009 was an ugly year for tourism worldwide with declines in international visitation of some 4 % globally and over 6 % for Europe.  Living through the worst economic and financial crisis in over half a century will do that, apparently.  But, the World Tourism Organization is already seeing a recovery for 2010, forecasting growth of 4% for the year.  Europe will be a bit weaker, with the original growth forecasts of 1 to 3% likely needing revision downwards to take account of this latest geological event.

So yes; with the latest events hotel operations will suffer further, owners will have more short term cash-flow problems (and for some in the current economic environment it will push them over the edge), banks will end up with even more properties in default, investors will “panic” again and stock prices will suffer.  But, as an industry, it is nothing but resilient – it will survive, adapt and change.  In simple terms; our need/desire to travel far exceeds anything that Mother Nature, disease, terrorists or our politicians and militaries can manage to throw at us, or each other.

Global trends obviously do nothing to raise the spirits of those most directly hit by whatever the “catastrophe” of the month might be.  And make no doubt about it, new ones are going to happen – a potentially significant increase in the price of oil comes to mind as just one example.

However, what asset owners (the original investors or the banks that end up with the properties) need to focus on is not just the very short term.  They need to understand the overall nature of the industry.

They need to focus on maintaining asset values by developing new asset management strategies, reviewing their tech and distribution strategies and developing risk analysis scenarios that take account of events such as those being experienced.  But, they must equally incorporate into their long term thinking a clear understanding of the overall dynamics of the industry.   Revised income protection plans must not lose sight of the fact that the downturns are almost never permanent – “don’t panic” should be the driving vision.

Ultimately, investors/asset owners need to be ready to gauge, address and survive the rough spots on the road and be ready for when we return to “normalcy” and then extract the most value on their investment – whatever that normalcy might be.

So where’s the evidence for this and what are the reasons?

First, the evidence. When was the last time you had a dining experience that didn’t include at least a couple of these hospitality crimes:

• Poor or non-existent product knowledge. (A verbatim answer to the question ‘what’s guacamole?’ – “it’s green”. God help us!)
• Wine or water dumped on the table and not poured! – why do they think we come out to eat? We can serve ourselves in our own homes?
• Meals delivered to the wrong diner. When there’s a couple dining, you’ve got a 50% chance of getting it right……
• Debris left un-cleared for way too long. Yuk! Doesn’t exactly stimulate the appetite, does it?
• Poor timing: starters too slow, mains too quick and the worse thing, having to hang around for the bill. When you want to go, you want to go?
• Zero personality or, even worse, bad attitude. Service and servility is still regularly confused in Britain.

Now, obviously you may have been eating in the hallowed halls of named dining establishments in one of our larger cities and therefore been exempt from most of these transgressions – although, be truthful, how friendly was the service? – but I think you’ll agree these flaws are still way too prevalent up and down the country, in independent and chain venues alike?

Now, the reasons for poor service. Given it’s not rocket science, there must be structural reasons why there are still these inconsistencies? How about these, for starters…….

• Revolving door staffing means standards are hard to maintain
• Low pay and poor hours are potent barriers to recruiting and hanging on to the best staff
• A fixation on employing young people over experience!
• Many restaurant layouts and processes make a hard job even harder.

One particular paradox I’ve noticed is that we expect young waiting staff to empathise with our needs, and yet the majority hardly ever eat out themselves, as a consequence of their lifestyles and budgets.

So how do we bridge this gap? Well – giving them a quarterly eating-out budget with a remit to go mystery-shopping the competition might be a start, killing two birds with one stone?

So what else can be done? At the risk of trying to reinvent the wheel, we all know where the answers lie, it’s the will to change that seems lacking. It seems that for far too long we’ve focused on craft skills – laying tables, carrying plates, pouring (or not) wine and so on – at the expense of the Customer Experience. Training our front-line staff intelligently – so that they recognise the customer journey and are aware of the key touch-points – will be a massive step forward. This may seem obvious, but I wonder how the majority of our catering colleges design and deliver their customer service training?

One final thought. The holy grail for restaurants is High Repeat (HR) and High Referral (HR). Sounds like the key is Human Resources (HR). Anybody see a pattern emerging here?

So, till next time. Happy dining. Keep exploring and searching for service nirvana. Demand good service. Don’t put up with sub-standard. Complain articulately, don’t be aggressive. Offer constructive feedback via restaurants’ websites. Reward exemplary service with decent tips. Smile and say ‘thank you’.

Have a nice day, and come back soon, y’all!

Peter

If any of these themes arouse/stimulate/irritate you, please let us know….